There have been many obituaries to globalisation since the big financial crisis of 2008. The dislocations caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the tough sanctions imposed upon Moscow have spawned another batch of them. Beneath this formulaic contemplation of “globalisation” versus “deglobalisation”, what sort of developments might unfold on the international economic front as a result of this conflict?
For the immediate future, it seems clear that the economic damage from the military and economic warfare will go way beyond Ukraine and Russia. The repercussions are already aggravating the existing prospects for a sluggish 2020s in many advanced economies. But what about the possible longer-term economic consequences for the world? What might it mean for international economic relations?
Could the war be a wake-up call for the Western nations to shake themselves from their economic torpor? If it ensues, would a new cold war rekindle the previous Western unity and cooperation that was so absent during the pandemic? Or have we entered a new age of autarky? Might we see further fragmentation into rival economic blocs? What could be the ramifications for the dollar-based financial system?
Phil Mullan writer, lecturer and business manager; author, Beyond Confrontation: globalists, nationalists and their discontents