Anyone who drives regularly will have noticed the sharp drop in petrol prices since the spate of lockdowns around the world and the fall in economic output. What’s going on?
The recent huge drop in oil prices, well into negative territory, is not just a reflection of supply and demand, but clearly an indication of supply-side tensions within the world economy. Commodities are a leading economic indicator of the health of the world economy and recently things have been going a bit haywire.
Pre-Covid tensions have been exacerbated by the fracturing of the global economy brought on by the pandemic, which has taken commodity trading to boiling point not just in the case of oil but also with the obsession of shortening supply chains away from what are seen as politically risky trading partners such as Russia and China.
This session will be introduced by Robert Fig, a seasoned commodity risk practitioner, who will look at what this means for the future of world trade. Will negative pricing become a regular phenomenon? What does the future hold for commodity, bond and currency pricing in general?
Record drop in energy investment, warns International Energy Agency, BBC News, 27 May 2020
Coronavirus: Oil price collapses to lowest level for 18 years, BBC News, 30 March 2020
Oil’s Sudden Rebound Is Exposing the Achilles’ Heel of Shale, Bloomberg, 24 May 2020
Trump’s oil deal: The inside story of how the Saudi-Russia price war ended, Fortune, 14 April 2020